Housing Market Will Fall 10%-15% When Fed Stops Subsidizing Home Prices

Dick Bove: Housing Market Will Fall 10%-15% When Fed Stops Subsidizing Home Prices
Posted Mar 19, 2010 10:09am EDT by Henry Blodget in Recession, Housing
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For the past year, the Fed has been buying mortgage-backed securities in an effort to keep mortgage rates low and provide some support to the housing market. On March 31, the Fed says, it will stop buying mortgage-backed securities.

So what will happen to mortgage rates and house prices?

No one knows, says Dick Bove, the wise and fearless analyst at Rochdale Securities.

No one knows what mortgage rates would be if the Fed weren’t subsidizing them. No one knows where house prices would be if the Treasury and other government agencies weren’t modifying mortgages and trying to bail homeowners out. No one knows what would happen if taxpayers weren’t funding tens of billions of dollars of losses at bankrupt Fannie and Freddie to provide yet another housing subsidy.

Even if the Fed stops buying mortgage-backed securities at the end of March, Bove says, some of the impact of the subsidy will still be felt through June. Also, for a while at least, Fannie and Freddie will continue to buy mortgages. So there won’t likely be a sudden change to the housing market or mortgage rates.

Over the longer term, though, we’ll begin to find out where house prices would be if the housing market were less subsidized. And Dick Bove expects that that level is 10%-15% below today’s prices.

Baldwin Park Fl| Short sales and Bank owned

In communities such as Baldwin Park which is mostly an area with high prices homes and few renters, homeowners are more likely to avoid foreclosure. In the last year 184 homes sold in this community and only about 18 percent of the distress sales there went in foreclosure. 16 percent qualified for short sales by showing evidence of hardship, such as a job loss, illness or death in the family. 68 percent of the sales were regular sales.

Not only can these homeowners emerge from short sales with their credit relatively intact, their neighborhood stands to recover more quickly because short-sale prices are typically higher than those of foreclosed properties.

Even so the number of short sales and bank owned changed with each month. From March of 2009 until March of 2010 there were 184 sold properties out of which 32% were either short sales or bank owned. From September 2009 to March 2010 there were 81 sold properties out of which 42% were either short sales or bank owned. From December 2009 to March 2010 there were 30 sold properties out of which 47% were either shorts sales or bank owned. The rate of short sales and bank owned went up in Baldwin Park about 15% in one year. It shows that the current real estate market is still abundant in short sales and bank owned.

But even though the number of short sales and bank owned went up in Baldwin Park the median sold price actually is steady and not decreasing. Properties in this community are still retaining its values and not going down as so many other communities in Orlando area.

The employment market has still not seen the improvement that we all hoped for but buyers are taking advantage of the tax credits, low interest rate and low prices. Also, investors who were able to see the downturn of the real estate market and waited for better deals now are coming out and buying real bargains.

Living in Baldwin Park – Orlando Luxury Homes

Planned Award-winning Baldwin Park is one of the most family-oriented communities in Orlando. This traditional neighborhood development is not bordered by walls or gates, so it blends seamlessly into the lively surrounding areas.  Florida’s natural quality of life and was recognized as one of the top environmentally responsible communities in the state.

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